Browsing by Author "Milhøj, Anders"
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An explorative study of the contracts of the Tender Electronic Daily (TED)la Cour, Lisbeth; Milhøj, Anders (Frederiksberg, 2013)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Public procurement is estimated to constitute more than 16% of GDP in the EU, see e.g. Ramsey (2006). This is one of the reasons why a lot of interest has been attached to this topic. Most of the papers in this field have been of a theoretical nature but during the last ten years also a few empirical studies have become available, see e.g. Marion, J. (2007) and Bajari et al (2008). At the EU level liberalizations have been going on since the late 80’ies (see e.g. the EU commission (1985). Here certain regulations imply that public projects of a certain size need to be subject to a public tender. Again according to Ramsey (2006) around 16% of all public procurement in the EU is subject to these rules and regulations and information on the contracts corresponding to these 16% can be found in Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) database. In general, the hypothesis is that public procurement will increase competition and ultimately lead to cheaper contracts for the authorities, see e.g. Cecchini (1988) for the economic arguments. But in practice: do the rules and regulations ensure more competition? Do they lead to more internationalization in the sense that more foreign firms become contract winners? Do the government and municipalities in the EU countries actually gain economically from the procurement? Does the choice of type of procedure matter? A lot of interesting questions immediately pops up and some of them – but only some of them - may be analyzed based on the content of this data base. Still, due to the large coverage and the international nature of the data base we believe that a thoroughly study of the possibilities of TED is of major interest and the present study is just a first step in this direction. One of the students who extracted the TED data has also used them for analysis in his master thesis, see Bundsgaard (2010). He has, however, limited his interest to analyze the choice of procedure: auction vs. negotiation and therefore our study has a broader scope when it comes to available variables. To our knowledge we are the first group of researchers who begins to analyze the content of this database using explorative statistical techniques based on a broad range of variables. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8686 Files in this item: 1
Lisbeth la Cour_SYMP_13.pdf (172.5Kb) -
Recent developments and dependencies on prices/taxesla Cour, Lisbeth; Milhøj, Anders (København, 2005)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: In the following we will analyse the sale of alcohol in Denmark. Various figures related to this question are published by Statistics Denmark at different frequencies. Our main concern will be with quarterly data for the sale of beer, wine and spirits from the period 1990 – 2004. Our two hypotheses are: First we want to convince the reader that the total sale of alcohol in Denmark since 1980 has been fairly stable. By total sale we mean the total sale of 100% alcohol so the three categories – beer, wine and spirits are measured in litres of 100% alcohol equivalents. In order to convince the reader that the total sale of alcohol has been fairly constant we will present graphs and various indicators and tests of the degree of temporal dependence in this series. The overall impression from this analysis is that our first hypothesis seems to be supported – at least not contradicted – by the data. Next, we want to model the sale of beer and wine as shares of the total sale of alcohol. Even though the total sale can be considered fairly stable there have been divergent paths of evolvement for the sub-groups: the sale of beer has decreased over the period and the sale of wine has increased. The sale of spirits has been fairly stable. Modelling the system of the beer-share and the wine-share we want to split the total development into a part that can be ascribed to changes in the relative prices and a part that can be explained by changes in taste and drinking habits specified as a trend. By specifying a system conditionally on the prices of beer, wine and spirits and a trend we manage to estimate price sensitivity and taste sensitivity. A small forecasting exercise shows that the final model is fairly good at predicting changes in the shares due to price changes. Finally, the effects on the market shares of hypothetical changes in the taxation of alcohol are discussed. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7532 Files in this item: 1
wp18-2005.pdf (1.837Mb) -
Milhøj, Anders; la Cour, Lisbeth Funding (København, 2006)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: We study aggregation - or sample frequencies - of time series, e.g. aggregation from weekly to monthly or quarterly time series. Aggregation usually gives shorter time series but spurious phenomena, in e.g. daily observations, can on the other hand be avoided. An important issue is the effect of aggregation on the adjustment coefficient in cointegrated systems. We study only first order vector autoregressive processes for n dimensional time series Xt, and we illustrate the theory by a two dimensional and a four dimensional model for prices of various grades of gasoline. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7605 Files in this item: 1
wp14-06.pdf (567.4Kb)
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