Browsing Working papers by Author "Bajlum, Claus"
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Bajlum, Claus; Tind Larsen, Peter (København, 2007)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of accounting transparency on the term structure of CDS spreads for a large cross-section of rms. Using a newly developed measure of accounting transparency in Berger, Chen & Li (2006), we nd a downward-sloping term structure of transparency spreads. Estimating the gap between the high and low transparency credit curves at the 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10-year maturity, the transparency spread is insigni cant in the long end but highly signi cant and robust at 20 bps at the 1-year maturity. Furthermore, the eect of accounting transparency on the term structure of CDS spreads is largest for the most risky rms. These results are strongly supportive of the model by Du¢ e & Lando (2001), and add an explanation to the underprediction of short-term credit spreads by traditional structural credit risk models. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7189 Files in this item: 1
ssrn-id1006161.pdf (443.3Kb) -
Model choice and volatility calibrationBajlum, Claus; Tind Larsen, Peter (København, 2007)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: When identifying relative value opportunities across credit and equity markets, the arbitrageur faces two major problems, namely positions based on model misspeci cation and mismeasured inputs. Using credit default swap data, this paper addresses both concerns in a convergence-type trading strategy. In spite of dierences in assumptions governing default and calibration, we nd the exact structural model linking the markets second to timely key inputs. Studying an equally-weighted portfolio of all relative value positions, the excess returns are insigni cant when based on a traditional volatility from historical equity returns. However, relying on an implied volatility from equity options results in a substantial gain in strategy execution and highly signi cant excess returns - even when small gaps are exploited. The gain is largest in the speculative grade segment, and cannot be explained from systematic market risk factors. Although the strategy may seem attractive at an aggregate level, positions on individual obligors can be very risky. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7196 Files in this item: 1
ssrn-id956839.pdf (424.3Kb)
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