Browsing Research documents by Author "Lando, David"
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Christensen, Jens; Hansen, Ernst; Lando, David (Frederiksberg, 2002)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This paper addresses the estimation of default probabilities and associated confidence sets with special focus on rare events. Research on rating transition data has documented a tendency for recently downgraded issuers to be at an increased risk of experiencing further downgrades compared to issuers that have held the same rating for a longer period of time. To capture this non-Markov effect we introduce a continuous-time hidden Markov chain model in which downgrades firms enter into a hidden, ’excited’ state. Using data from Moody’s we estimate the parameters of the model, and conclude that both default probabilities and confidence sets are strongly influenced by the introduction of hidden excited states. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8139 Files in this item: 1
x656444400.pdf (297.7Kb) -
Lando, David; Mortensen, Allan (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This paper investigates the pricing of step-up bonds, i.e. corporate bonds with provisions stating that the coupon payments increase as the credit rating level of the issuer declines. To assess the risk-neutral rating transition probabilities necessary to price these bonds, we introduce a new calibration method within the reduced-form rating-based model of Jarrow, Lando, and Turnbull (1997). We also treat split ratings and adjust for rating outlook. Step-up bonds have been issued in large amounts in the European telecom sector, and we find that, through most of the sample, step-up bonds issued by the two largest issuers have traded at a discount relative to comparable fixed-coupon bonds from the same issuers. Our findings cannot be attributed to traditional liquidity factors, and they suggest that issuing step-up bonds increased the cost of capital for the issuers. Keywords: defaultable bonds, step-up coupons, rating-based models JEL classification: G12, G13 URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7184 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2004-9.pdf (412.0Kb)
Now showing items 1-2 of 2