A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial

OPEN ARCHIVE

Union Jack
Dannebrog

A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial

Show full item record

Title: A Derivation of Probabilities of Correct and Wrongful Conviction in a Criminal Trial
Author: Lando, Henrik
Abstract: This article derives key variables in the analysis of standards of proof in criminal law from basic conditional probabilities. The variables derived are the probability of correct and wrongful conviction, the expected sanction and society's incarceration costs, while the basic conditional probabilities are the probability of observing (any given) evidence against individual i given that individual j committed the crime (for any j including j equal to i). The variables are derived from the conditional probabilities as a function of the standard of the proof using simple Bayesian updating.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7225
Date: 2006-12-14

Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Files Size Format View
ssrn-id874907.pdf 139.9Kb PDF View/Open

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show full item record