Browsing Department of Finance (FI) by Year Published
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Kallestrup, René (Frederiksberg, 2012)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The Global Financial Crisis which started in 2007 is a defining economic event of our lifetime. Recessions and public bailouts of banking systems have resulted in concerns about the solvency of sovereigns in recent years as many Eurozone countries face substantial fiscal pressures. The exact causes of the Global Financial Crisis are still debated but it is unlikely to be the outcome of one single event. In a review of the Global Financial Crisis based on 21 books on the topic, Lo (2011) summarises the underlying causes and policy prescriptions: ”there is still significant disagreement as to what the underlying causes of the crisis were, and even less agreement as to what to do about it ... Like World War II, no single account of this vast and complicated calamity is sufficient to describe it.” The listed causes range from global capital flows, poor regulation, regulatory capture, inequality, high leverage, skewed economic incentives of borrowers and lenders, etc. Gorton and Metrick (2012) also contain an interesting summary of the literature written in recent years and in ”Lessons from the Financial Crisis” edited by Berd (2010) several chapters from academic researchers analyse the ongoing crisis. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8450 Files in this item: 1
Rene_Kallestrup.pdf (1.375Mb) -
Stenbo Nielsen, Mads (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The thesis consists of three essays that cover different aspects of correlation modelling in corporate default risk. Each essay is self-contained and can be read independently. Essay I: Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence? Essay II: Systematic and idiosyncratic default risk in synthetic credit markets. Essay III: Credit spreads across the business cycle. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8370 Files in this item: 1
Mads_Stenbo_Nielsen.pdf (5.032Mb) -
Tang Andersen, Allan Sall (Frederiksberg, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The topic of this thesis is the modeling of risks in interest-rate and inflation markets. Interest-rate risk is an important issue to investors. For instance, according to BIS (2010) the notional value of over-the-counter interest-rate derivatives markets is 465,260 billion US-dollar. This corresponds to 77 percent of the notional of the entire OTC derivatives market. Thus interest-rate derivatives is at the back-bone of the financial markets. According to ISDA (2009) 83 percent of Fortune 500 companies report using interest-rate derivatives in their risk management. Furthermore, many mortgage-based loans and pension contracts contain either explicit or implicit interest-rate options. Thus a better understanding of the interest-rate derivative markets, and the risk associated with the traded products is of great value, both to financial and non-financial companies as well as individuals.... URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8339 Files in this item: 1
AllanSallTangAnderen_PhDThesis.pdf (2.088Mb) -
Udarbejdet for Penge- og PensionspaneletChristiansen, Charlotte; Hasager, Leif; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne (København, 2011)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Denne rapport er udarbejdet efter anmodning fra Penge- og Pensionspanelet (PPP). Ifølge udvalgets kommissorium har udvalget haft til opgave at udarbejde en rapport indeholdende forslag til anbefalinger om investering i obligationer og obligationsbaserede investeringsforeninger. M algruppen er fastlagt som danske ikke-professionelle investorer, og anbefalingerne forventes at være operationelle og letforst aelige samt veldokumenterede. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8535 Files in this item: 1
Astrup_Rapport_2011.pdf (390.1Kb) -
Dick-Nielsen, Jens (Frederiksberg, 2010)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The three essays study the US corporate bond market with special attention to bond liquidity. All essays are empirical studies which rely heavily on the availability of transactions data. Earlier studies had to use quoted bond prices for empirical studies, but with the introduction of the TRACE system and with the following dissemination of transaction prices the data quality on corporate bonds has improved immensely. In the years after 2000 a range of studies assessed the performance of structural credit risk models and found that they were not able to fully explain the size of the average credit spread for corporate bonds. Huang and Huang (2003) suggested (among others) that the remaining non-default-component of the credit spread was an illiquidity premium. Using transaction data this thesis studies the impact of illiquidity and trading frictions on corporate bonds. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8198 Files in this item: 1
Jens_Dick-Nielsen.pdf (3.104Mb) -
Forssbæck, Jens (Frederiksberg, 2009)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The thesis studies how financial markets discipline commercial and central banks’ behavior in various ways. In the first part, two papers test different aspects of market discipline of commercial banks’ risk taking, using a dataset of several hundred banks worldwide. In the first paper, it is shown that the risk-shifting opportunity of shareholders introduced by deposit insurance depends on ownership structure and the extent of market discipline by uninsured creditors. I find that the effect of shareholder control on risk is convex, and that creditor discipline tempers this effect but has little individual influence on risk. The second paper tests the monitoring dimension of market discipline and formulates a two-step procedure which makes it possible to sidestep the common methodological problem that banks’ ‘true’ risk is unobserved. Results suggest that if the quality of institutions is sufficiently high, some market-based indicators may be more accurate measures of banks’ true risk than a set of commonly used accounting-based benchmark indicators – a possibility effectively precluded by much of previous research. In the second part of the thesis, three papers study constraints on central bank behavior introduced by financial markets, using data from a set of small, open European economies during the 1980s and 1990s. The first of these papers tests how capital account liberalization and exchange-rate regime constrain monetary policy autonomy. Contrary to traditional theory, the paper finds no autonomy effect of exchange rate flexibility, whereas capital controls provided some (albeit limited) independence from innovations in foreign money market interest rates. The remaining two papers address how deregulation, innovation, and growth in domestic money markets interplay with central banks’ choices of monetary policy operating procedures. The analysis of the European countries suggests that while deregulation and the emergence of short-term financial markets constrained central bank discretion and compelled increased reliance on open market operations, the paths of money market development in different countries were also partially determined by the respective central banks’ decisions. In the final paper, the same framework of analysis is applied to China, which has announced its intention to rely increasingly on market operations in monetary policy. The results suggest that the disciplining effect of domestic financial markets on central bank behavior in China is so far very small, largely due to remaining de facto financial repression. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7785 Files in this item: 1
Jens_Forssbæck.pdf (3.819Mb) -
Lunde, Jens (København, 2008)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Housing markets in several countries are suffering. The prolonged and strong housing price rises of recent years have turned around. Historical records suggest that housing price drops may happen slowly but be large. Housing prices continue to fall because capital losses have substituted capital gains, housing equities are falling, and housing price expectations have become negative. Household debt had increased to the same degree as housing prices or even more in some countries. Access to mortgage and credit had improved and lenders used "cruise control” when financing still higher housing market prices. Now, housing demand is further weakened because access to credit has been tightened. During a downturn, owner-occupiers’ housing price risk is increased and a growing number of owners have negative equity and payment troubles. Under these conditions, arrears and foreclosures will be widespread in owner-occupation. The effects on the wider economy of a housing price downturn are discussed. Not only does the lenders’ increased credit risk lead to tightened credit access, losses threaten the banks and can create financial crises. Falling housing prices clearly depress the housing market and housing construction activities and thereby the contribution of residential investments to economic growth, while it is less obvious that average housing consumption and residential investments over the whole cycle are affected. The reduction of non-housing consumption as a result of a wealth effect is a reality for years for depressed owner-occupiers but in the aggregate, the housing wealth effect is more dubious. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7141 Files in this item: 1
wp 2008-1 jens lunde.pdf (199.0Kb) -
Bajlum, Claus (København, 2008)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This Ph.D. thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, which can be read independently. The chapters are interrelated through their use of structural credit risk models and a credit derivative known as the Credit Default Swap (CDS). Chapter 1 estimates the impact of accounting transparency on the term structure of CDS spreads for a large cross-section of firms. Chapter 2 analyzes the use of CDS spreads in a convergence-type trading strategy known as capital structure arbitrage. Finally Chapter 3 estimates the time-series behaviour of the credit risk premium in the market for Credit Default Swaps. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/6520 Files in this item: 1
claus_bajlum.pdf (1.513Mb) -
Bechmann, Ken L. (Frederiksberg, 2007)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Formålet med denne rapport er at give en overordnet beskrivelse af anvendelsen af optionsaflønning i danske børsnoterede selskaber med fokus på udviklingen over tid frem til og med 2006, dvs. rapporten vil indeholde helt nye resultater i forhold til tidligere undersøgelser. Tilsvarende vil rapporten også indeholde en beskrivelse af, hvad der karakteriserer den optionsaflønning, der senest er blevet tildelt. Rapporten vil dermed primært være ”afrapporterende” og vil ikke indeholde fortolkninger eller diskussioner af disse resultater. I stedet vil rapporten, for de særligt interesserede, i flere tilfælde indeholde referencer til artikler, hvor sådanne diskussioner tidligere er foretaget og/eller, hvor de præsenterede resultater er behandlet mere detaljeret. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/8282 Files in this item: 1
Rapport-optionsaflønningØEM.pdf (74.96Kb) -
Model choice and volatility calibrationBajlum, Claus; Tind Larsen, Peter (København, 2007)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: When identifying relative value opportunities across credit and equity markets, the arbitrageur faces two major problems, namely positions based on model misspeci cation and mismeasured inputs. Using credit default swap data, this paper addresses both concerns in a convergence-type trading strategy. In spite of dierences in assumptions governing default and calibration, we nd the exact structural model linking the markets second to timely key inputs. Studying an equally-weighted portfolio of all relative value positions, the excess returns are insigni cant when based on a traditional volatility from historical equity returns. However, relying on an implied volatility from equity options results in a substantial gain in strategy execution and highly signi cant excess returns - even when small gaps are exploited. The gain is largest in the speculative grade segment, and cannot be explained from systematic market risk factors. Although the strategy may seem attractive at an aggregate level, positions on individual obligors can be very risky. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7196 Files in this item: 1
ssrn-id956839.pdf (424.3Kb) -
Bajlum, Claus; Tind Larsen, Peter (København, 2007)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of accounting transparency on the term structure of CDS spreads for a large cross-section of rms. Using a newly developed measure of accounting transparency in Berger, Chen & Li (2006), we nd a downward-sloping term structure of transparency spreads. Estimating the gap between the high and low transparency credit curves at the 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10-year maturity, the transparency spread is insigni cant in the long end but highly signi cant and robust at 20 bps at the 1-year maturity. Furthermore, the eect of accounting transparency on the term structure of CDS spreads is largest for the most risky rms. These results are strongly supportive of the model by Du¢ e & Lando (2001), and add an explanation to the underprediction of short-term credit spreads by traditional structural credit risk models. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7189 Files in this item: 1
ssrn-id1006161.pdf (443.3Kb) -
Bechmann, Ken L.; Hjortshøj, Toke L. (København, 2007)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: New accounting standards require ¯rms to expense the costs of option-based compensation (OBC), but the associated valuations o®er many challenges for ¯rms. Earlier research has documented that ¯rms in the U.S. generally underreport the values of OBC by manipulating the inputs used for valuation purposes. This paper examines the values of OBC disclosed by Danish ¯rms. The results suggest that ¯rms experi ence some di±culties in valuing OBC, but interestingly, there is no clear evidence of deliberate underreporting. For example, there is no evidence that ¯rms use manipulated values for the Black-Scholes parameters in their valuations. Furthermore, ¯rms determine the expected time to maturity in a way that is generally consistent with the guidelines provided by the new accounting standards. The ¯ndings di®er from those of the U.S., but is consistent with the more limited use of OBC and the lower level of attention paid to these values in Denmark. However, the di®erences can also be due to the fact that several Danish ¯rms do not provide the information required regarding their OBC, which is clearly a very e®ective way of hiding the true values. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7143 Files in this item: 1
2007_25.pdf (347.2Kb) -
Løchte Jørgensen, Peter (København, 2006)[More information][Less information]
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J.M.P., Albin; Bjarne, Astrup Jensen; Anders, Muszta; Martin, Richter (København, 2006)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This article deals with stochastic differential equations with volatility induced stationarity. We study of theoretical properties of such equations, as well as numerical aspects, together with a detailed study of three examples. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7167 Files in this item: 1
dcaf-wp-10.pdf (811.2Kb) -
Armerin, Frederik; Björk, Tomas; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne (København, 2005)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: We investigate the possibility of an arbitrage free model for the term structure of interest rates where the yield curve only changes through a parallel shift. We consider HJM type forward rate models driven by a multidimensionalWiener process as well as by a general marked point process. Within this general framework we show that there does indeed exist a large variety of nontrivial parallel shift term structure models, and we also describe these in detail. We also show that there exists no nontrivial flat term structure model. The same analysis is repeated for the similar case, where the yield curve only changes through proportional shifts. Key words: bond market, term structure of interest rates, flat term structures. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7137 Files in this item: 1
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Østrup, Finn (København, 2005)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The article analyses how government spending is determined under different exchange rate regimes in the context of a small open economy. Assuming nominal wage contracts which last for one period and assuming a benevolent government which determines government spending to optimise a representative individual’s utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences between exchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. These differences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomic variables differently under different exchange rate regimes, and second because the government’s inclination to expand government spending is affected by inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation, the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under a fixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate regime in which the monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment target and an inflation target. As government spending affects the representative individual’s utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare. Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy; monetary union; inflation targeting. JEL classicification: E42, E61, E62, F33. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7140 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2005-1.pdf (290.0Kb) -
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Abstract: The article examines how government spending is determined in a closed economy where the nominal wage is pre-set through contracts and the wage setters have perfect foresight regarding subsequent policy decisions. The monetary regime affects government spending because: (i) with a pre-set nominal wage, a given change in government spending has different effects on employment and inflation under different monetary regimes, and (ii) the authorities’ inclination to expand government spending is affected by the inflation rate which depends on the monetary regime. If the costs related to inflation are high, a comparison between monetary regimes suggests that welfare is highest under nominal income targeting where the nominal income target is determined to bring about price stability. Keywords: Monetary regimes; fiscal policy; monetary non-neutrality. JEL classicification: E42, E61, E62. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7174 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2005-2.pdf (237.6Kb) -
Lessons from EstoniaKhoury, Sarkis Joseph; Wihlborg, Clas (København, 2005)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The literature on Currency Boards (CB) stops at the water edge in terms of dealing with the totality of the functions of a central bank. Monetary policy, and banking supervision can be "outsourced" in an open economy with substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) in the banking sector if political nationalism does not trump economic rationality. An orthodox CB renders the central banking function redundant in terms of interest rate and exchange rate determination. FDI in banking could perform the same role for the supervisory function of central banks. We use the case of Estonia to illustrate the feasibility of, and constraints on, outsourcing of central bank functions. A brief discussion of the Argentinian experience is used for contrast. Key words: Currency Board, Foreign Banks, Supervision, Regional Integration,outsourcing. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7168 Files in this item: 1
wplefic032005.pdf (270.1Kb) -
Does negative equity exist as a permanent feature in the Danish housing market?Lunde, Jens (København, 2005)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: House and flat prices have been through a tremendous bust and boom cycle in Denmark. From 1986 to 1993 real prices for houses and flats dropped by one third on average, foreclosures accounted for around 1/6 of the house and flat turnovers in numbers, and in reality the market for owner-occupied houses and flats was in a crisis. Initiated by a strong interest rate drop and by an expansive finance policy, the market turned. From 1993H1 to 2004H1 real house prices increased 76% and real flat prices 128%. Moreover, Denmark has a leading position in the international household debt race and as in many other countries the fear of the consequences of a strong interest rate increase for the housing market is widespread. Therefore, in order to examine the financial stability among owner-occupiers, a sample of approx. 40,000 owner-occupier families with data at household level has been drawn from the tax statistics for each year from 1987 to 2003. Through the analysis it is shown that the distributions of the owner-occupiers’ capital structure, measured by the net liability/housing wealth ratios, have more or less been the same throughout the 16 years, even during the long-lasting steep house and flat price rise. Moreover, since 1994 the median value of the net liability/income ratio has increased by 71% for all owner-occupiers and by 54% for owner-occupiers between 30-39 years of age.Finally, one last, important aspect of the financial stability of owner-occupiers, namely, their capacity to service their debt has been analysed. The owner-occupiers’ net interest expenditures/ income ratios before tax have been nearly halved from 1987 to 2003. Most of the drop happened during the years of the "housing market failure". From 1994 on the ratios were more slightly reduced and were in 2003 at 8.8% (median value) for all owner-occupiers and 12.2% for owner-occupiers between 30-39 years of age. However, if the reductions of the tax rates for deducting interest expenditures are taken into account, the 2003 after-tax-ratios are only about 2 percentage points below the 1987 after-tax ratios. At March 2005, a new challenge facing Danish owner-occupiers is that 50% of their mortgages carry interest adjustment. Keywords: house prices, housing wealth, real estate wealth, housing debt, mortgage debt, personal wealth, personal finance, loan-to-value, debt-to-income, interest expenditures, interest-to-income, financial stability. JEL classifications: D 14, E 44, G 21, R 20, R 31. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7197 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_jens_lunde_2005_3.pdf (1.494Mb) -
Construction and information content of an investor-cost based rating of Danish mutual fundsBechmann, Ken L.; Rangvid, Jesper (København, 2005)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: We develop a new rating of mutual funds: the atpRating. The atpRating assigns crowns to each individual mutual fund based upon the costs an investor pays when investing in the fund in relation to what it would cost to invest in the fund’s peers. Within each investment category, the rating assigns five crowns to funds with the lowest costs and one crown to funds with the highest costs. We investigate the ability of the atpRating to predict the future performance of a fund. We find that an investor who has invested in the funds with the lowest costs within an investment category would have obtained an annual risk-adjusted excess return that is approximately 3-4 percentage points higher per annum than if the funds with the highest costs had been invested in. We compare the atpRating with the Morningstar Rating. We show that one reason why the atpRating and the Morningstar Rating contain different information is that the returns Morningstar uses as inputs when rating funds are highly volatile whereas the costs the atpRating uses as inputs when rating funds are highly persistent. In other words, a fund that has low costs one year will most likely also have low costs the following year, whereas the return of a fund in a certain year generally contains only little information about the future return that the fund will generate. Finally, we have information on the investments in different mutual funds made by a small subgroup of investors known to have been exposed to both the atpRating and the Morningstar Rating, i.e. information is provided on how investors use the two ratings. We find that investors have a clear preference for high-rated funds. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7194 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2005_6.pdf (598.9Kb)
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