Browsing Department of Finance (FI) by Year Published
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Østrup, Finn (København, 2005)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The article analyses how government spending is determined under different exchange rate regimes in the context of a small open economy. Assuming nominal wage contracts which last for one period and assuming a benevolent government which determines government spending to optimise a representative individual’s utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences between exchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. These differences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomic variables differently under different exchange rate regimes, and second because the government’s inclination to expand government spending is affected by inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation, the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under a fixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate regime in which the monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment target and an inflation target. As government spending affects the representative individual’s utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare. Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy; monetary union; inflation targeting. JEL classicification: E42, E61, E62, F33. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7140 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2005-1.pdf (290.0Kb) -
Lando, David; Mortensen, Allan (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This paper investigates the pricing of step-up bonds, i.e. corporate bonds with provisions stating that the coupon payments increase as the credit rating level of the issuer declines. To assess the risk-neutral rating transition probabilities necessary to price these bonds, we introduce a new calibration method within the reduced-form rating-based model of Jarrow, Lando, and Turnbull (1997). We also treat split ratings and adjust for rating outlook. Step-up bonds have been issued in large amounts in the European telecom sector, and we find that, through most of the sample, step-up bonds issued by the two largest issuers have traded at a discount relative to comparable fixed-coupon bonds from the same issuers. Our findings cannot be attributed to traditional liquidity factors, and they suggest that issuing step-up bonds increased the cost of capital for the issuers. Keywords: defaultable bonds, step-up coupons, rating-based models JEL classification: G12, G13 URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7184 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2004-9.pdf (412.0Kb) -
Raahauge, Peter (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: This paper suggests a method for determining rigorous upper bounds on approximation errors of numerical solutions to infinite horizon dynamic programming models. Bounds are provided for approximations of the value function and the policy function as well as the derivatives of the value function. The bounds apply to more general problems than existing bounding methods do. For instance, since strict concavity is not required, linear models and piecewise linear approximations can be dealt with. Despite the generality, the bounds perform well in comparison with existing methods even when applied to approximations of a standard (strictly concave) growth model. KEYWORDS: Numerical approximation errors, Bellman contractions, Error bounds URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7171 Files in this item: 1
2004_4.pdf (385.2Kb) -
Astrup Jensen, Bjarne (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: We describe the background and the basic funding mechanisms for the type of adjustable rate mortgage loans that were introduced in the Danish market in 1996. Each loan is funded separately by tap issuing pass-through mortgage bonds ("strict balance principle"). The novelty is a funding mechanism that uses a roll-over strategy, where long term loans are funded by sequentially issuing short term pass-through bonds, and the first issuer of these loans obtained a patent on the funding principles in 1999. Publicly available descriptions of the principles leave an impression of very complicated numerical algorithms. The algorithms described here show that the essentials can be reduced to a "back of an envelope" complexity. Keywords: Adjustable rate mortgages, balance principle, patent, yield curve riding URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7173 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2004_11.pdf (244.1Kb) -
Evidence from DenmarkBechmann, Ken L.; Raaballe, Johannes (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Abstract It is often asserted that stock splits and stock dividends are purely cosmetic events. However, many studies have documented several stock market effects associated with stock splits and stock dividends. This paper examines the effects of these two types of events for the Danish stock market. Consistent with the existing literature, the two events are associated with a significantly positive announcement effect of ap- proximately 2.5%. However, when examining the two events more carefully, several important results are obtained. First, a firm's motivation for announcing the two events is completely different. Second, the positive stock market reaction is closely related to associated changes in a firm's payout policy, but the relationship varies for the two types of events. Finally, there is only very weak evidence for a change in the liquidity of the stock. On the whole, after controlling for the firm's payout policy, the results suggest that a stock split is a cosmetic event and that a stock dividend on its own is considered negative news. Key words: Stock splits; Stock dividends; Cash dividends; Signaling; Liquidity URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7181 Files in this item: 1
2004_1.pdf (360.0Kb) -
Christensen, Bent Jesper; Raahauge, Peter (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: We consider a random utility extension of the fundamental Lucas (1978) equilibrium asset pricing model. The resulting structural model leads naturally to a likelihood function. We estimate the model using U.S. asset market data from 1871 to 2000, using both dividends and earnings as state variables. We find that current dividends do not forecast future utility shocks, whereas current utility shocks do forecast future dividends. The estimated structural model produces a sequence of predicted utility shocks which provide better forecasts of future long-horizon stock market returns than the classical dividend-price ratio. KEYWORDS: Randomutility, asset pricing, maximumlikelihood, structuralmodel, return predictability URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7135 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_peter_raahauge_2004_7.pdf (270.6Kb) -
Er Nørbyrapportens anbefalinger til gavn for aktionærerne?Rose, Caspar (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Abstract: This article presents an empirical analysis of board composition and financial performance using a unique sample of Danish listed firms. In 2002, a group consisting of four prominent business leaders formulated Denmark’s own code of good corporate governance, entitled the Nørby report, The report consists of various recommendations aiming at strengthen Danish firms competitiveness and value creation including some specific recommendations concerning board composition. However, the analysis shows that none of the recommendations impact Tobin’s Q. Specifically, board size, proportion of insiders, positions held by board members in other firms do not significantly impact Tobin’s Q. The analysis only finds that the average age of the board has a significantly negative impact on performance. Board diversity, measured by the fraction of women and foreigners in boards as well as the educational background of board members does not impact performance either. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7138 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2004_2.pdf (675.6Kb) -
Holst, Anders; Nalholm, Morten (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: In this paper an investigation of the pricing of callable annuities with interest-only (I-O) optionality is conducted. First the I-O optionality feature of callable annuities is introduced. Next an algorithm for pricing callable annuities with I-O optionality using the finite difference methodology, is formulated. This is then used to investigate optimal strategies of I-O bonds and impacts on prices from the I-O optionality. It is found that the I-O feature necessitates a simultaneous valuation of all elements of the callable I-O bond. Following this, the Greeks of the I-O bond are investigated. It is found that they are affected by the I-O feature, but only to a limited extent. Finally, a model of heterogenous prepayment decisions is incorporated into the framework. The model is extended to model heterogeneity in the I-O exercise decisions. The incorporation of heterogeneity in borrower decisions is found to lead to reasonable causalities. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7149 Files in this item: 1
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Sørensen, Carsten; Trolle, Anders Bjerre (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: We derive an explicit solution to the portfolio problem of a power utility investor with preferences for wealth at a ¯nite investment horizon. The investor can invest in assets with return dynamics described as part of a general multivariate model. The modeling framework encompasses discrete-time VAR-models where some of the state-variables (e.g. expected excess returns) may not be directly observable. A realistic multivariate model is estimated and applied to analyze the portfolio implications of investment horizon and return predictability when real interest rates and expected excess returns on stock and bonds are not directly observed but must be estimated as part of the problem faced by the investor. The solution exhibits small variability in portfolio allocations over time compared to the case when excess returns are assumed observable. JEL Classification: G11 Keywords: Portfolio choice, predictability, VAR, unobserved state-variables, hedging demands URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7151 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp_2004_8_030105.pdf (427.9Kb) -
Lunde, Jens (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Abstract. In Denmark, taxation of residential property returns varies considerably with the type of ownership and type of tenure in terms of the way income is calculated, the types of taxes applied and tax rates, which range from 0 % to above 60 %. Together with other housing subsidies this disparity in taxation contributes to the pronounced lack of tenure neutrality in the Danish housing market. The paper illustrates how tax rules alone create distortions and imbalances in the housing and residential property markets and discusses as well the magnitude of the imbalances. The method used is the application of a set of return and user cost equations. The tax aspects of the long-standing rather unequal treatment of private rental dwellings, social rental dwellings, owner-occupied dwellings and private co-operative dwellings, which have drawn decisive tracks in the markets, are discussed. The lowering of the tax rate for the return of institutional pension savings to 15 % which came into effect in 2001 has created a substantial advantage for pension funds compared with private investors with regard to investments in rental residential properties. The owner-occupiers’ user costs and subsidization are shown to depend on their capital structure and to a large extent they depend on whether the owners’ most obvious savings alternatives are either personal investments with heavily taxed returns or institutional pension savings with lightly taxed returns. Also private co-operative associations are tax exempted, and this fact in combination with the prospects of improved legal conditions for raising loans to finance the individual apartments will almost certainly lead to this form of tenure – as "tax free ownership" – capturing part of the market for owner occupation. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7154 Files in this item: 1
2004_3.pdf (276.5Kb) -
Lessons from the UKMallin, Chris; Mullineux, Andy; Wihlborg, Clas (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: In 1992 the Cadbury Committee report on the financial aspects of corporate governance was published. The Committee had been established following the failures of a number of high profile businesses in the UK which had shaken confidence in the market. Some nine years later, in 2001, the collapse of Enron sent shockwaves through the US market. As a result of the Enron collapse and various other high profile scandals in the years since its occurrence, the US is examining its own corporate governance structures and provisions to determine how these might be improved and help avoid another Enron. The EU similarly is developing principles and legislation to improve corporate governance, and scandals such as Royal Ahold and Parmalat have helped drive further governance reforms. In this paper we detail the development of corporate governance codes in the UK and the adaptation of similar codes in the EU. We discuss the role of the financial sector in corporate governance and how principles for regulation and supervision of the financial sector complement codes of conduct and legislation in the area of corporate governance. JEL Classification numbers: G34, G28, G22, G23 Keywords: corporate governance, financial sector; institutional investors. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/6789 Files in this item: 1
wplefic062004.pdf (171.8Kb) -
Raahauge, Peter (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Kinks and jumps in the payoff function of option contracts prevent an effective implementation of higher-order numerical approximation methods. Moreover, the derivatives (the greeks) are not easily determined around such singularities, even with standard lower-order methods. This paper suggests a transformation to turn the original ill-conditioned pricing problem into a well-behaved numerical problem. For a standard test case, both vanilla- and binary call price functions are approximated with (tensor) B-splines of up to 10’th order. Polynomial convergence rates of orders up to approximately 10 are obtained for prices as well as for first and second order derivatives (delta and gamma). Unlike similar studies, numerical approximation errors are measured both as weighted averages and in the supnorm over a state space including time-to-maturities down to a split second. KEYWORDS: Numerical option pricing, Transformed state spaces, Higher-order B-splines. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7157 Files in this item: 1
2004_5.pdf (467.4Kb) -
Lyse Hansen, Thomas; Astrup Jensen, Bjarne (København, 2004)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: It is a delicate matter to trade spot products and financial derivatives in energy markets. Op- posite to bond and stock markets, the underlying assets are real products and a significant part of the demand for them represents a real need for the products, which can only be substituted away with some difficulties or, in some cases, only in a prohibitively costly manner. This is particularly true in the spot market, where the demand is almost always met, but where the spot price processes can be quite different from the spot price processes conventionally used in the pricing of derivatives. This pattern of real demand is also the main reason for the existence of the well-known convenience yield in energy markets. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7185 Files in this item: 1
endeligt_wp__2004_10_.pdf (365.3Kb) -
Florentsen, Bjarne; Møller, Michael; Nielsen, Niels Christian (København, 2003)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: In many OECD countries, a seller has a right to reimbursement of VAT (RVAT) she has paid on goods sold, but for which she has not yet received payment. Such reimbursement of VAT on receivables is economically inefficient. It leads to: * Distortion of credit markets, by subsidizing direct credit at the cost of financial intermediaries. * Price discrimination, by subsidizing buyers with low creditworthiness. * A less efficient collection of bad debts, as trade with bad debts is made extremely expensive. The finance literature presents several "good" arguments in favor of trade credits, e.g. transaction costs and asymmetric information. In contrast RVAT is an economically "bad" argument for trade credit. It is a subsidy that leads to inefficiently high use of trade credit. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7193 Files in this item: 1
reimbursement_of_vat_2003-1.pdf (373.0Kb) -
Bechmann, Ken L.; Løchte Jørgensen, Peter (København, 2003)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Abstract Over the last decade the Danish corporate environment has experienced a significant increase in the use of option-based compensation (OBC). This and many other facts are documented in the present paper which provides the first insights into the characteristics of the option and warrant contracts issued by the complete sample of Danish companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. A newly constructed database containing all publicly available information on details of Danish OBC contracts allows us to present, for example, results regarding contract values at an aggregated as well as at firm, personnel group, and individual level. The paper also contains a section which discusses and presents evidence on the incentive effects provided by the option-based compensation contracts adopted by Danish listed companies. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7150 Files in this item: 1
the_value_and_incentives_1.pdf (310.6Kb) -
Raahauge, Peter (København, 2003)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: Rational expectations models make stringent assumptions on the agent's knowledge about the true model. This paper introduces a model in which the rational agent realizes that using a given model involves approximation errors, and adjusts behavior accordingly. If the researcher accounts for this empirical rationality on part of the agent, the resulting empirical model assigns likelihood to the data actually observed, unlike in the unmodified rational expectations case. A Lucas (1978)-type asset pricing model which incorporates empirical rationality is constructed and estimated using U.S. stock data. The equilibrium asset pricing function is seriously affected by the existence of approximation errors and the descriptive properties and normative implications of the model are significantly improved. This suggests that investors do not | and should not | ignore approximation errors. Keywords: Approximation errors, model uncertainty, estimation of structural models, rational expectations, asset pricing. URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7139 Files in this item: 1
wp-141.pdf (347.7Kb) -
Bechmann, Ken (København, 2003)[More information][Less information]
Abstract: The announcement of a convertible bond call is associated with an average con- temporaneous abnormal stock price decline of 1.75% and an ensuing price recovery in the conversion period. A price fall and the subsequent recovery suggest price pressure as the explanation for the announcement eect. However, in a perfect capital market the option to convert is not exercised early and hence, the increase in the number of shares outstanding does not occur at the announcement date. Instead, this paper ar- gues and provides evidence that hedging-induced short selling is causing at least part of the short-run price pressure. Key words: Convertible bond calls; Hedging; Short selling; Price pressure; Underwriting JEL Classication: G14; G24; G32 URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7165 Files in this item: 1
caf wp-164.pdf (719.6Kb) -
the KFX indexBechmann, Ken L. (København, 2002)[More information][Less information]
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[More information][Less information]
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the case of soybeansRichter, Martin; Sørensen, Carsten (København, 2002)[More information][Less information]
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10398/7179 Files in this item: 1
richter_soerensen_stochastic.pdf (330.3Kb)